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Las Vegas, mixed martial arts, MMA, Rich Bergeron, UFC

Breaking Down the UFC 207 Main Card: Preview and Predictions

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By: Rich Bergeron

UFC 207 marks the long-awaited return of “Rowdy” Ronda Rousey (12-1) to an Octagon she once dominated as the women’s bantamweight champion. The title taken from Rousey in dramatic fashion by Holly Holm is now around the capable waist of Amanda Nunes (13-4). Rousey will have a chance to rip it off and put it back around her own hips on December 30th.

Rousey’s been out of the cage for over a year, and she already confirmed recently that her career in mixed martial arts is coming to a close. Nunes is young, hungry and intimidating as the underdog (+150) looking to hold on to her belt against the legendary Judoka and MMA juggernaut. Rousey comes in as the favorite at -185.

For more odds and betting information visit 12BET.

There are more questions than answers going into this blockbuster event. Will Rousey shake off the ring rust and return to glory? Is she already one step toward retirement? Can Nunes quiet her doubters and continue to degrade the legacy of the first ever UFC women’s bantamweight champion? Whatever happens, the first round will be crucial. Both women will be looking to make it a quick night.

Prediction: Rousey comes back with a vengeance and displays much improved striking and kick defense. Nunes battles hard and represents the best Brazil has to offer, but Ronda has too much to lose. She may not have a perfect record to protect anymore, but she does have a perfect reason to win this fight. She also needs to establish her alpha status to shut her own critics up and prove she is back to reclaim her title. Rousey wins by knockout early in the second round.

Another UFC bantamweight title is on the line in the co-main event. Dominic Cruz (22-1) gives Cody Garbrandt (10-0) a crack at the belt in what could be a true slugfest. Though Cody never lost a fight and knocked out nine of his ten career opponents at the professional level, Dominic Cruz (-225) is rolling along on a 13-fight win streak that dates back to March of 2008. Garbrandt (+175) does represent a proverbial “puncher’s chance” here, though. He’s won his last three bouts by TKO or knockout. All of them ended thank’s to Cody’s lighting fast punching power.

Prediction: Considering that Cruz is a tactical, defensive fighter, he will thrive as the fight gets into the deeper rounds. Garbrandt cannot win without a first round knockout as the experience and raw talent Cruz brings to the cage is unique and dynamic. He makes adjustments like no other fighter and uses body and head movement that seems to confound every opponent he’s faced in recent years. Cody will have to catch “The Dominator” to connect with him, and he’ll have just one round to do it. Cruz wins by late round TKO or Unanimous Decision.

A heavyweight clash between Fabricio Werdum  (21-6-1) and Cain Velasquez (14-2) is also featured at UFC 207. The fight is a rematch of a UFC 188 war between the two goliaths, which ended with Werdum winning the championship bout by third-round submission (Guillotine choke).

This time around, Velasquez is the favored fighter (-210) while Werdum is a +170 underdog. This is another brawler vs. tactician match-up, and it could go either way. Werdum showed a weak chin against Stipe Miocic, and Cain will be looking for every opportunity to check it.

Prediction: Velasquez dispatches Werdum inside of two rounds. Cain’s striking is superior to Werdum, and he will not make the mistake of letting Werdum take the fight to the ground this time. Velasquez by KO.

Neil Magny (18-5) and Johny Hendricks (17-5)  come into the cage for UFC 207 as two of the best welterweights in the league. Both are experiencing some ups and downs in sport lately, though. Magny had a three fight win streak stopped by Lorenz Larkin in his last bout while Hendricks lost three out of his last four fights. Hendricks is a far cry from his former self and a long way from his championship days. Stephen Thompson wiped the mat with Hendricks en route to a brutal TKO before Kelvin Gastelum stepped into the cage across from the former champ and took home a unanimous decision after three hard fought rounds.

Prediction: Magny is the more durable and dynamic fighter, and Hendricks can’t get close enough to land his best power shots. Magny will stop Hendricks’ advances, deny his takedown attempts and submit or stop the former champ before the final bell. Magny by third-round TKO.

Leading off the main card is another fight involving a former champion. T.J. Dillashaw (13-3) battles journeyman John “Hands of Stone” Lineker (29-7) in a bantamweight fight bound to be a future classic. Lineker brings an intensity, power and accuracy that is simply astonishing to witness. Dillashaw moves around the cage like an Irish stepdancer, dodging attacks like a Mexican bullfighter. Lineker showed in his last bout with John Dodson that he can be a crafty, technical fighter as well.

Prediction: What T.J. lacks is Lineker’s strength: POWER. Lineker will learn to find his range in the second round and start to penetrate Dillashaw’s unorthodox defense. Midway through the third round he will catch T.J. backing up and end the fight on the feet with a brutal series of punches, kicks, knees and elbows against the cage. Lineker by third-round TKO.

mixed martial arts, UFC, women's MMA

UFC 185: It’s Showtime!

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Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale/USA Today Sports

Despite the turmoil experienced by the Ultimate Fighting Championship so far this year, from the failed drug tests of stars like Jon Jones, Anderson Silva and Nick Diaz, to the reshuffling of UFC 184 because of an injury to middleweight champion Chris Weidman, the company has delivered in the Octagon so far this year. Despite Weidman’s injury, UFC 184 was still a smashing success thanks to another dominant performance by women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey.

Now UFC 185 is here, with another stacked card that should entertain once again. This card is anchored by TWO title fights, taking fans back to a time when the UFC would routinely offer stacked fight cards before rapid expansion under their deal with FOX apparently created an oversaturated product.

Here’s who I think emerges victorious on this talent-filled card.

Chris “Kamikaze” Cariaso (17-6) vs. Henry “The Messenger” Cejudo (7-0) (Flyweight – 125 lbs.)

Cariaso is coming off a submission loss to flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson last summer. But to be fair, everyone is losing to Johnson these days, and he’s close to cleaning out the flyweight division. Cejudo has yet to experience defeat and enjoyed a unanimous decision victory in his UFC debut late last year.

Cariaso has been a UFC and World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) veteran for the last five years and rode a 3-fight win streak prior to his loss to Johnson. Cejudo is a young pup trying to make a name for himself in the UFC, but Cariaso will use his veteran savvy to catch the overeager fighter for a finish.

Winner: Cariaso by second-round TKO

Roy “Big Country” Nelson (21-10) vs. Alistair “The Reem” Overeem (38-14-1) (Heavyweight – 225 lbs.)

I’ll admit up front that I’m not a big Roy Nelson fan. He’s a talented fighter who delivers exciting fights and is an entertaining personality. But ever since he debuted in the UFC and won season 10 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” he feasted on lower-ranked heavyweights like Stefan Struve, Brendan Schaub and Matt Mitrione. But when matched up with elite heavyweights like Fabricio Werdum, Junior Dos Santos and Daniel Cormier (before he dropped to light heavyweight), Nelson was routinely outclassed and battered.

Overeem has also failed to live up to the hype that came with his jump to the UFC. After he demolished Brock Lesnar in 2011, a title shot was in the works against then-champion Junior Dos Santos. But the fight never materialized due to injuries and Overeem suffered back-to-back knockout losses to Antonio Silva and Travis Browne.

Overeem has alternated wins and losses since then but is coming off a first-round knockout of Struve. Nelson was knocked out in his last fight against Mark Hunt, which despite Nelson’s usually iron chin, does not come as a shock, given Hunt’s incredible punching power.
Overeem may not have Hunt’s power, but I think he will batter Nelson for a rather lopsided decision victory. At this stage in his career, Nelson is a gatekeeper. But “The Reem” doesn’t need to prove himself against a brawler like Nelson.

Winner: Overeem by unanimous decision

Johny “Bigg Rigg” Hendricks (16-3) vs. Matt “The Immortal” Brown (21-12) (Welterweight – 170 lbs.)

Speaking of brawling and battering, this fight has all the makings of a Fight of the Year candidate. Hendricks dropped the welterweight title to Robbie Lawler last year and should he win this fight, a rematch with Lawler is all but assured – assuming Lawler gets past Rory McDonald later this year.

Brown also lost to Lawler in his last fight and was also on the receiving end of a brutal beating. Hendricks and Brown tend to just slug it out and ask questions later, which should result in an entertaining fight for the fans. Hendricks seems to have renewed his commitment to MMA following his loss to Lawler and he seems driven to get his belt back. Brown is as game as they come, but Hendricks will prove to be too much.

Winner: Hendricks by second-round TKO

Carla “Cookie Monster” Esparza (11-2) vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk (8-0) (Women’s Strawweight Title – 115 lbs.)

Esparza made her UFC debut with a bang by winning the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter” to feature all female fighters, and in the process become the UFC’s first women’s strawweight champion. She effectively derailed the Rose Namajunas hype train to win the belt, when some were dubbing Namajunas the next Ronda Rousey in the strawweight division.

Jedrzejczyk derailed a favorite in her own right, defeating highly regarded Claudia Gadelha last year by a close decision when many thought Gadelha would be Esparza’s first title defense. Jedrzejczyk is a grinder who thrives in an ugly fight in close quarters. Esparza used her wrestling to neutralize Namajunas’ quick-striking offense, so getting into an ugly fight with Jedrzejczyk shouldn’t faze Esparza one bit. Esparza will take Jedrzejczyk down early and often and ride her wrestling to a decision victory.

Winner: Esparza by unanimous decision

Anthony “Showtime” Pettis (18-2) vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (23-7) (Lightweight Title – 155 lbs.)

Pettis has been absolutely dominant as of late, not only winning the lightweight title from Benson Henderson in quick and exciting fashion with a first-round armbar but routinely displaying his amazing athleticism and using it to quickly shoot himself up the best pound-for-pound fighter list.

But Dos Anjos is not to be taken lightly. He too finished Henderson in the first round and earned his title shot by absolutely dismantling Nate Diaz late last year. Dos Anjos is tough and will know that Pettis is looking for a quick finish. He won’t get it, but Pettis’ freakish athleticism will make its presence felt eventually and overcome Dos Anjos and solidify Pettis’ case as one of the best lightweight fighters of all time.

Winner: Pettis by second-round submission

Chris Huntemann writes about mixed martial arts in the state of Maryland. He also shares his thoughts on the UFC, Bellator, and World Series of Fighting. Check out his blog, or follow him on Twitter: @mmamaryland.