By: Tony Penecale
The biggest week in boxing is upon us with the annual Cinco de Mayo weekend extravaganza in Las Vegas. The Mexican marquee star Saul “Canelo” Alvarez returns to his home-away-from-home to face the challenge of fellow middleweight titlist, Daniel “Miracle Man” Jacobs, who is intent on spoiling the homecoming.
Can Canelo sprinkle some extra cinnamon on an explosive victory? Or will it be Jacobs who provides another miracle in his story-book comeback?
AGE, RECORD, AND STATS
Alvarez: Age: 28 years old
Record: 51-1-2 (35 Knockouts)
Height: 5’9”
Weight: 167 * * Weight for last bout (12-15-18)
Reach: 70”
Jacobs: Age: 32 years old
Record: 35-2 (29 Knockouts)
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 159 * * Weight for last bout (10-27-18)
Reach: 73”
RING ACCOMPLISHMENTS
Alvarez:
WBC Junior Middleweight Champion (’11-’13)
WBA Junior Middleweight Champion (‘13)
Ring Magazine Junior Middleweight Champion (’13)
WBC Middleweight Champion (’15-Pres)
WBA Middleweight Champion (’18-Pres)
Ring Magazine Middleweight Champion (’18-Pres)
WBA Super Middleweight Champion (’18-Pres)
Ring Magazine Pound-4-Pound #3 Boxer
Jacobs:
WBA Middleweight Champion (’14-‘17)
IBF Middleweight Champion (’18-‘Pres)
STYLE
Alvarez:
An aggressive, physical fighter with underrated boxing skills, Alvarez often wears opponents down with consistent pressure and heavy-handed punches. Will use feints and counters to throw is opponent’s timing off and create openings for a strength-sapping body attack. Carries fight-changing power in both hands but sometimes doesn’t throw enough punches. While he is most known for his offensive skills, Alvarez has decent, but not great, defensive skills slipping and blocking punches.
Jacobs:
A lanky, long-armed boxer with versatile skills who often fights aggressively and is not afraid to exchange punches. Jacobs couples good boxing skills and fundamentals with knockout power in both hands. Will sometimes be too offensive-minded and is susceptible to counter punches. Shows tremendous heart in the face of adversity.
STRENGTHS
Alvarez:
* Power – Alvarez carries thunder in both fists. He has knockout power in either hand, but his most devastating weapon resides in his left hook, especially to the body. He has three knockout-of-the-year candidates in his career.
* Strength – Alvarez is a physically-maturing and thickly-built fighter with uncanny strength. He is effective in backing fighters up, even when not landing flush punches. He has grown from junior-middleweight and has competed recently at super-middleweight.
* Experience – Alvarez has come a long way during his professional career and has competed against some of the biggest names in boxing. He has been in this moment numerous times and the raucous atmosphere will be second nature to him.
Jacobs:
* Character – Jacobs stood up to and defeated the most daunting adversary of his career when he overcame bone cancer in 2011. His character shows in the ring as he has handled some difficult challenges in his career.
* Power – Jacobs has registered 29 of his 35 professional victories via stoppage. He has the power to change the fight with one punch and the killer instinct to finish a wounded opponent.
* Versatile – Jacobs possesses good boxing skills and movement, sometimes switching between orthodox and southpaw stances. If against another aggressive opponent, Jacobs will box on his back foot and seek counter-punching opportunities. He is adept at accelerating the pace when needed.
WEAKNESSES
Alvarez:
* Tactical Mistakes – Alvarez has made tactical mistakes in some previous fights, including trying to beat Floyd Mayweather Jr. by boxing with him on the outside. In other fights, he has allowed his opponents to control the pace and steal rounds.
* Easy-to-Hit – While his offensive skill is his calling card, Alvarez has a decent defense. When he loses focus or becomes overly aggressive, he is wide open for straight right hands and counter punches.
* Heavy Feet – Alvarez has good boxing ability but is often slow-footed in the ring. When matched against taller fighters with good lateral movement, he frequently struggles, as was the case in his bouts with Austin Trout and Erislandy Lara.
Jacobs:
* Suspect Chin – Jacobs is no stranger to tasting the canvas. He was knocked out in devastating fashion by Dmitry Pirog in his first professional loss. He was also on the canvas against Gennady Golovkin and Sergio Mora.
* Reckless – In his first fight against Mora, Jacobs became overly aggressive after scoring a knockdown and left himself wide open for a counter punch that put him on the canvas. He was also off-balance and reckless again when he had Peter Quillin stunned.
* Atmosphere – Jacobs has fought in Las Vegas before and main-evented in Madison Square Garden. However, this is his first marquee Las Vegas Cinco-de-Mayo weekend extravaganza.
PREVIOUS BOUT
Alvarez: (12/15/18) – Alvarez made a successful super-middleweight debut by destroying the game but overmatched Rocky Fielding in three rounds. Alvarez punished Fielding’s body, scoring four knockdowns, and finishing him with his signature left hook to the liver.
Jacobs:
(10/27/18) – Jacobs had a tough encounter with undefeated but unknown Serhiy Derevianchenko, winning a 12-round split decision. Jacobs scored a 1st-round knockdown and landed more punches during the back-and-forth contest.
3 BEST PERFORMANCES
Alvarez:
* James Kirkland (5/9/15) – The fireworks were on display from the opening bell as Kirkland engaged Alvarez with a kamikaze attack. Alvarez countered and scored a 1st-round knockdown and ended the fight in the 3rd round with a picturesque right hand.
* Liam Smith (9/17/16) – Alvarez methodically broke down the previously-undefeated Smith, controlling the bout from the beginning. Alvarez scored knockdowns in the 7th and 8th rounds before ending the show with his left hook to the liver in the 9th round.
* Carlos Baldomir (9/18/10) – Alvarez was a 20-year-old prodigy facing a durable former world champion in Baldomir. Alvarez was successful boxing early and using his advantages in speed and skill to sweep the first five rounds. But it was his display in the 6th that was memorable. Alvarez rocked Baldomir before finally dropping with a left hook, rendering him unconscious before he hit the mat and dealing him his only stoppage loss in a 16-year career.
Jacobs:
* Sergio Mora (9/9/16) – Jacobs wiped away any controversy from their first fight, which ended with Mora injuring his ankle, by dissecting him in the rematch, culminating in an impressive 7th round TKO. Jacobs scored a knockdown each in the 4th and 5th rounds before opening up and dropping Mora three times in the 7th round, forcing the stoppage.
* Peter Quillin (12/5/15) – In a battle for Brooklyn Bragging Rights, Jacobs stunned the undefeated and favored Quillin with a 1st round TKO. Jacobs landed a right hand early, sending Quilling staggering into the ropes. A follow-up flurry sent Quillin across the ring where the referee stopped the fight.
* Caleb Truax (4/24/15) – Jacobs dominated Truax with a masterful performance over 11 rounds, controlling the action with a heavy jab, and wearing his game opponent down. Comfortably ahead going into the final round, Jacobs unloaded on his weakened adversary until the referee saved him from further punishment.
KEYS TO VICTORY
Alvarez:
* Start fast and don’t allow Jacobs to become confident
* Cut off the ring and force Jacobs to fight in confined spaces
* Go to the body early and often
Jacobs:
* Use a stiff jab and lateral movement to keep Alvarez off balance
* Land something to get Alvarez’s respect early
* Do not get reckless
QUESTIONS
Alvarez:
* Will the move back to middleweight drain Alvarez?
* Is Alvarez overlooking Jacobs?
* Will Alvarez become frustrated if Jacobs uses effective lateral movement?
Jacobs:
* Can Jacobs win a decision in Las Vegas?
* Will Jacobs be able to exploit Alvarez’s tactical shortcomings?
* How will Jacobs handle the pro-Alvarez atmosphere?
PENECALE PREDICTION
The crowd will be buzzing at the opening bell. Alvarez will move forward, hands up, probing with his jab and trying to set his feet. Jacobs will be moving laterally, pawing a tentative jab and using head feints. The cautious 1st round will end with Alvarez stepping in and throwing a few hard body shots, causing the partisan crowd to erupt in cheers.
Alvarez will continue to apply pressure in the 2nd and 3rd rounds with Jacobs working to establish his jab with more authority. Jacobs will land a few heavy jabs to the face with Alvarez countering with right hands over the top. Jacobs will step to his left to avoid Alvarez’s left hook to the body.
The action will continue to intensify through the middle rounds. Jacobs will be following his jab with a straight right hand. Alvarez will be crouching and using his strength on the inside, using overhand rights and hooks to the arms and ribs.
Alvarez will sport some redness around his eyes and Jacobs will show welts across his torso. The pro-Alvarez crowd will gasp as Jacobs lands a series of hard right hands in the 6th round but will then erupt in the 7th when an exchange of left hooks sees Alvarez land first, sending Jacobs sprawling back to the canvas.
Jacobs will rise and affirm to referee Tony Weeks that he is okay to continue. Alvarez will attack, throwing his left hook to the body and head. Jacobs will stagger back, set his feet, and respond with a right hand and wild left hook. Alvarez will land a counter left hook to the head and Jacobs will clinch, with the bell ending the round.
The crowd will be wild with anticipation going into the 8th round, sensing the Alvarez might be closing in on victory. Jacobs will use lateral movement while he clears his head, probing with his jab to keep Alvarez at bay. Alvarez will continue to look for the homerun punch, but Jacobs will stay out of range for the duration.
Throughout the 9th and 10th rounds, Jacobs will be sufficiently recovered and willing to engage Alvarez, throwing more right hands, and increasing the tempo. Alvarez will land a series of thudding hooks to the body and Jacobs will counter with uppercuts on the inside.
The 11th round will continue the intense action with both fighters having their moments. Alvarez will become inactive for stretches of the round, allowing Jacobs to again control the pace.
Going into the final round, Jacobs will know that he is in danger with the bout being so close. He will initiate the pressure on Alvarez and there will be some toe-to-toe exchanges. As Alvarez takes a deep breath, Jacobs will successfully back him on his heels with a jab, followed by a straight-right hand. Alvarez will roll with the punch and counter with his own right hand. The crowd will be on its feet as the fighters exchange punches and embrace the final bell.
The decision will be unanimous with Dave Moretti and Glenn Feldman both scoring 115-112 and Steve Weisfeld with a wider margin of 117-110, all in favor of Saul “Canelo” Alvarez.
Below you can access this week’s radio show where Tony , “Psychic” Tom Padgett and “Rabble Rousin'” Rich Bergeron discuss the fight.
Listen to “Canelo vs. Jacobs Preview, Lesnar Retires from MMA, MacDonald questions will to keep hurting people after Fitch Draw” on Spreaker.
Another fantastic job by our amazing Analyst Tony “The Tornado” Tony Penecale on this amazing preview and prediction piece. Read it if you want to know what happens before it happens live 🙂