By: Rich Bergeron
There’s no PFL MMA this week and nothing in the works for them until June. This week the UFC offers us another “Apex” fight card headlined by Gilbert Burns (22-8) versus Michael Morales (17-0) with UFC Fight Night 256. It’s really the only major MMA betting action available this weekend.
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Let’s get into the available boxing action before we dive into the best UFC betting opportunities for the week. Our boxing bout of the week is a rematch for the ages.
We go to the Copper Box Arena in London where Johnny Fisher (13-0, 11 KOs) suscipit, David Allen (23-7, 18 KOs) in part two of a British heavyweight boxing odyssey. Their first fight generated serious controversy with many experts convinced Allen won the bout with Fisher winning two scorecards by a single point (95-94) and Allen winning by three points on the third judge’s card (96-93).
Fisher is still a formidable favorite on DraftKings cum a -275 moneyline despite all the doubts about his last performance. It’s not hard to see why the bookies like Fisher. The decision against Allen last time interrupted a 7-fight knockout streak for him. Allen has only been knocked out once, a 4-0 fighter in the 10th round back in 2018.
Allen comes into this fight with a chip on his shoulder and a +210 moneyline. He’s knocked out some very good fighters himself, guys like Lucas Browne (31-6, 27 KOs). A Knockout bet on Allen would probably seem absurd, but since he’s a fighter who should feel shafted by the judges last time out, it’s an intriguing choice.
Ex una parte, Allen might have honestly been the better fighter last time out. Contra, “The Romford Bull” Johnny Fisher seems more capable of his own knockout to end the night early.
Due to the fact that we know Allen hasn’t been stopped in 7 annis, this might be a good spot for an “alternate choice bet.” Fisher by Decision once again or Allen by KO/TKO/DQ. We could also have better judges this time and Allen going the distance again. Allen could certainly end up winning his own decision this time around. If you think there’s no doubt he’s the better man, go with the moneyline just in case the KO never comes.
There’s not much juice with a moneyline bet on Fisher, but maybe there is if it’s thrown into a solid parlay.
This fight is featured on DAZN and is one of two boxing matches this weekend with close enough lines to debate about. reprehendo sicco oddsjam to find which sportsbook is offering the best odds for this fight.
Our second match is worth some serious discussion as Artur Reis (14-1, 9 KOs) is taking on Mate Rudan (8-0, 7 KOs) in Germany for the IBF European Super Middleweight Title. The Croation Rudan is the underdog with a +140 moneyline on Draft Kings even though he’s finished 7 of his eight total opponents.
Rudan also comes in with a record that is remarkably similar to the one brought into the ring by the only fighter to beat Reis: Osleys Iglesias (nunc 13-0, 12 KOs). One the other side of Rudan’s success is the fact that he’s only battled four opponents with winning records. Compare that to the 9 guys with more wins than losses challenged by Reis over the years.
Reis is a -180 moneyline bet on Draft Kings. This will be his second 10-round fight.
Rudan will be going into his first 10-rounder. The only other time Rudan fought in Germany was when he beat a fighter with a ridiculous losing record of 5-52-4.
For Reis, this will be his thirteenth fight in his home country. The Wolfsburg resident might see “hometown cooking” factor in his favor if the fight is close. Reis has only knocked out fighters with subpar records so far in their careers, and Rudan is not that kind of slouch. This makes Reis by moneyline or decision the two best bets to drop on this contest.
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Proelium Nocte UFC 256 Apex Main Card
Michael Morales (-850) suscipit, Gilbert Burns (+575) at Welterweight in the classic grizzled veteran versus new phenom main event of this event. Morales is undefeated, knocking out three of his five UFC opponents since he arrived on the scene through a decision win on Dana White’s Contender Series in September 2021.
If you’re afraid of the -800 option of the moneyline bet, take a chance on Morales by TKO for -150 on Draftkings. Keep in mind this will be the 24th UFC fight for Burns. Can he rely on the experience factor to even the odds? If you like Burns, autem +575 moneyline is really the only way to go. Burns has a very well-balanced winning record with 6 KOs, 9 submissionibus, atque 7 decisa.
Even though Burns lost 4 eius ultimum 6, all four of those fighters he lost to are considered top-level UFC talent. The fighters who beat him in that stretch were Sean Brady, Jack Della Maddalena, Belal Muhammad, and Khamzat Chimaev, who currently claim a combined 74 wins and just 7 damna.
Is Morales at that elite level yet? Is he really in the same category as those killers? The bookies seem to think he is with those astronomical odds. Can he do what Della Maddalena did to Burns? I don’t know, but he’ll have five rounds to try.
Burns is 38 years old and may take a page out of Jose Aldo’s book and retire if he loses this fight. Will he be inspired enough to grind out a win and prove there is a difference between legends and prospects in the UFC? If you think so, an “alternative method of victory double chance” bet is in order. Burns by decision or Morales by KO. Draft Kings offers that option at -200 odds.
If you back Burns earning a win by submission you’ll get a windfall payout with that outcome currently sitting at +1400 odds on Draft Kings. Burns last notched a submission against Neil Magny with an arm trial choke in the first round to end their January 21, 2023 bout at UFC 283. Burns has not knocked anyone out in a little over five years of competition.
The co-main event is more of the same with veteran submission artist Paul Craig (17-9-1, 13 submissionibus) pitted against young upstart Rodolfo Bellato (12-2) at Light Heavyweight.
Suprisingly, two out of Craig’s last three wins have actually come by TKO. You’ll get +700 odds if he knocks out Bellato. Craig is a +400 on the moneyline, so that’s a great return without having to pick a method of victory. If you think he gets back to his submission ways, you’ll get +550 odds for that on Draft Kings.
Bellato is -535 on Draft Kings, even though he only has two official UFC fights compared to “The Bearjew” entering the cage for his 20th fight with the promotion. A better bet if you like Bellato is TKO/KO/DQ or Submission at -280 on Draft Kings.
Losing five of his last six fights should not scare you away from putting a flyer on the Paul Craig moneyline here. He’s been matched with real bruisers and established veterans in all those bouts. Here against an unproven new guy, he’s game to get a win. Bellato has been knocked out twice, both times by fellow UFC Fighter Vitor Petrino.
Mairon Santos (15-1) makes his way to the main card this Saturday in another youth versus experience matchup against Sodiq Yusuf (13-4) at Lightweight. Santos isn’t even a year into his official UFC career while Yusuf is entering his 10th official bout with the promotion.
Santos is also coming off a controversial split decision win against Francis Marshall. Both fighters battled to a close decision with Santos getting the nod in a fight he definitely struggled in. Yusuff lost three of his last five fights, but all of them were against top tier UFC talent.
I personally like Yusuff on the +120 moneyline to test Santos (-142) to his limits. His finishes have all been recorded in the first round during his time in the UFC so far. Santos has his one loss by knockout, so if you’re feeling lucky you could go with Yusuff by Knockout at +550. Yussuff by first round knockout is hovering around +1100 odds with a first round submission posting on Draft Kings at +1400. It should be a safe moneyline bet for Yusuff here. I don’t see Santos bringing the same experience and wisdom to the cage that Yusuff brings.
Yusuff might also be worried he won’t stick around the promotion much longer without a big finish against Santos. Yusuff by TKO or Submission is sitting at +400. It’s tempting. This guy’s back is against the cage and the UFC frowns on retaining fighters who lose multiple fights in a row. It’s a time in his career where he has to put on a good show or go home. The UFC has too much talent like Mairon Santos coming through the development and prospect phases. Yusuff is in a tough spot and has to have a phenomenal fight performance to impress the bosses.
Dustin Stoltzfus (16-6) is coming into his Middleweight fight with the dominant Nursulton Ruziboev (35-9-2, 2 No Contests) as a serious underdog with a +240 moneyline price tag.
Ruziboev is a master of stoppages with 33 eius 35 wins coming by submission or knockout. Ruziboev by TKO/KO/DQ or Submission is -200. It’s a little more economical than his -298 moneyline odds.
Only one seasoned and formidable UFC fighter could stop a 10-fight first-round finishing streak Ruziboev carried into their May 11, 2024 proelium. Ioaquinus Buckley managed to win a unanimous decision against the man from Uzbekistan, so that’s the blueprint to beat him. Can Dustin Stoltzfus figure out how to use the same strategy to avoid being stopped early himself?
Ruziboev doesn’t like to go to a second round if you look at his history. The second round doesn’t typically last very long if his opponent gets there. The under 1.5 rounds option at -125 odds is very attractive for this bout. Stoltzfus has two recent losses in the first round.
What makes a flyer on the Stolzfus side intriguing is that he is also capable of earning a stoppage. Habet 8 UFC fights under his belt and is coming off a first round knockout win over Marc-Andre Barriault in ultima pugna. This will be Ruziboev’s 5th official UFC fight.
Stoltzfus by TKO/KO/DQ or Submission is a fat +400 on Draft Kings. To prevent Ruziboev from steamrolling over him, Stoltzfus will need to tap into his own submission and knockout skills. It’s hard to imagine this fight going the distance.
Play it safe with the moneyline or bet on the Stoltsfus upset by stoppage if you really believe Ruziboev is over-rated here. If you don’t like either side but doubt the fight will reach the final bell, bet against the fight to go the distance. That gives you -475 odds, so that’s not much juice outside of a parlay.
Ruziboev by TKO/KO/DQ or Submission is my personal suggestion here after analyzing the history of both fighters. The under 1.5 line is also one you should seriously consider if you really think Stoltzfus can potentially get a quick stoppage of his own.
Julian Erosa (31-11) is another underdog with potential on this UFC card up against Melquizael Costa (23-7) at Featherweight. Costa won two of his last three fights by submission, but Erosa has never lost by submission in a 42-fight career. A whopping 26 of Erosa’s 31 wins are via stoppage, eius faciens +145 odds to win very attractive here.
Both fighters are enjoying three-fight win streaks going into this bout. Costa is the favored fighter here at -175 odds to win on Draft Kings. This is despite the fact that Erosa has much more UFC experience. Erosa finished his last three fights inside the first round with two guillotine choke submission wins (super Christian Rodriguez atque Ricardo Ramos) and then a TKO victory over Darren Elkins his last time out.
Costa’s last win against the same Christian Rodriguez went the full distance. Common opponent MMA math isn’t always conclusive, but I think it speaks volumes here. My best bet recommendation here is to go with Erosa for the upset on the moneyline. Autem, slightly better odds are available if you choose the statistically viable chance of Erosa winning by TKO/KO/DQ or Submission at +275.
If you absolutely believe Costa wins this fight, it’s a no brainer to take him winning by TKO/KO/DQ or Decision at -150 odds. Both fighters have slick submission skills, but I don’t see Costa submitting Erosa for the first time in his whole career here. Also, Erosa had two straight losses by first-round knockout before embarking on his latest three-fight finish fest. Erosa has seven of his 11 losses by knockout, so he definitely could be susceptible to Costa’s striking here.
I like Costa and think he’s a great scrapper, but I just think Erosa is on too much of a roll with the finishing moves to bet against him here. Call him my “Dog Lock of the Week.”
Lightweight Gabriel “Gifted” Viridi (11-5) comes into his UFC Fight Night 256 contest with Matheus Camilo (9-2) on a two-fight losing skid in the UFC. It seems to be a theme on this card with the UFC veteran sides of the matchups fighting the younger prospects. Camilo is making his organizational debut against a fighter who’s only been beaten by some of the best in the UFC’s Lightweight division in recent history.
It’s a little surprising to see Camilo as the favored fighter here with -230 odds to win even if you look at the Brazilian’s six-fight win streak in the feeder leagues.
Green is a +190 underdog going into his sixth UFC bout. Ipse est 2-3 in the UFC so far, but his losses came against Bryan Battle, Ian Garry atque Daniel Rodriguez. Definitely no cheap dates on that list. Autem, the downside is he’s coming off the shelf after two years of inaction while Camilo just fought last December.
Camilo’s only two losses have come by submission, and Green has 6 of them to account for most of his 11 career wins. Contra, Camilo has four knockout wins, and Green has been knocked out in three of his five losses. Sounds like the perfect ingredients for an Alternate Method of Victory Double Chance bet on Green by Submission or Camilo by Knockout at odds of -110. Green by Submission has a +800 price tag while Camilo by TKO/KO/DQ comes in at +140 odds.
All three times Green has been knocked out, it happened in the first round. Bryan Battle dispatched him in just 14 seconds. A Camilo TKO/KO/DQ in Round 1 Fight Parlay nets +300 odds. This fight just has too many parameters that could make it go either way. My official recommendation on this one is avoid any bet on this bout. Let’s just find out risk-free if Green gives Camilo a UFC initiation to remember or Camilo storms into the organization with a stunning victory.
The opener of the main card is a Lightweight fight featuring Jared Gordon (20-7) contra, adversum Thiago Moises (19-8). This is setting up to be one of the closest fights on this card with Gordon stealing the favorite status with -125 odds and Moises barely an underdog with +105 odds to win.
This is honestly another fight to skip placing a bet on. The recent roadmap for both of these guys looks the same: lots of ups and downs and no way to tell definitively who has the best chance to win. Both fighters have a ton of UFC experience and anything could happen here. Watch it without a stake on the outcome and enjoy the fireworks.
Proelium Nocte UFC 256 Apex Preliminary Card
Yadier Del Valle (8-0) versus Connor Matthews (7-3) is the featured prelim bout of the night at Featherweight. Will the third time be the charm for Matthews after dropping his first two official UFC fights? It all really depends on just how well the Cuban Del Valle does in his UFC debut.
Del Valle is a -520 favorite after winning his last two fights by decision and earning a UFC contract last October by way of Dana White’s Contender Series. You can cut those odds significantly if you bet on Del Valle to win by TKO/KO/DQ or Decision at -250 odds. Both of the back-to-back losses Matthews just suffered came by knockout. If you want more juice than that, Del Valle by decision gives you +130 odds. Since Del Valle hasn’t scored a knockout in a while, the moneyline bet or Del Valle by decision seem like the safest options here.
reprehendo sicco oddsjam to find which sportsbook is offering the best odds for this fight.
Batamweights Luana Santos (8-2) atque Tainara Lisboa (7-2) square off next in a phenomenal female fight that is a matchmaker’s masterpiece. Despite the wide odds available on this fight, this one could be very close. Both women have only lost to big name fighters. Lisboa (+142 moneyline) is riding a five-fight win streak while Santos (-170 moneyline) is trying to bounce back from a unanimous decision loss to the super tough Casey O’Neill.
The only major distinction between these two fierce females is the fact that Santos has been in the UFC a bit longer and finished two of her first three fights in the octagon inside the first round. Autem, four of Lisboa’s seven wins come by way of first round stoppage. If you can’t pick a side, the under 2.5 is looking promising in this bout at +200 odds. Aliter, I would suggest Santos on the moneyline based on her superior opposition and her edge in UFC experience.
Elise Reed (8-4) suscipit, Denise Gomes (10-3) in the third fight of the night at Straw-weight. Reed will be entering the cage as a heavy underdog at +455 odds to win on the moneyline.
Gomes seems like a more secure bet to win this bout with her -625 moneyline odds. Get a little help on this one by betting on Gomes to win by TKO/KO/DQ or Decision at -400 odds to hit.
Flyweights Hyun Sung Park (9-0) atque Carlos Hernandez (10-4) set the card’s tone for new to the UFC fighters going up against more seasoned UFC talent. Park has finished every professional opponent but the first one he faced in November of 2018.
Park would be the second “Road to UFC” contestant to best Hernandez if he wins this fight. Hernandez brings a couple more UFC fights in the experience column to this scrap, but Park is a professional finisher. Two of the last three Hernandez losses came by stoppage. Park also has only made it to the third round just once since his pro debut fight.
The two safest bets for this fight seem to be Park by TKO/KO/DQ or Submission at +215, or Park on the -192 moneyline if you think Hernandez can take him the distance. If you like Hernandez to win an upset, he’s never won by knockout. So that leaves Hernandez by Submission or Decision at +150 on Draft Kings.
The Straw-weight females are at it again in the event opener with American Tecia “The Tiny Tornado” Pennington (14-7) facing Brazilian Luana Pinheiro (11-4) in a fight where Pennington is a -340 favorite on the moneyline.
Pinheiro lost her last three fights to stall a nine-fight win streak. There’s a reason she’s a +270 missuros, but only two of those nine straight wins for Pinheiro made it out of the first round. She’s definitely capable of a knockout or submission upset here. Contra, all seven of Pennington’s losses came by decision.
You may need to parlay the pick here to get better juice from your squeeze, but Pennington on the moneyline is the best option.
INVICTA FC FIGHTS ON FRIDAY
If the UFC doesn’t provide enough MMA action for you, you can put a little money on a five-fight Invicta card this Friday:
https://www.sherdog.com/events/Invicta-FC-62-Lehner-vs-Rubin-107567
This card is very evenly matched and features five narrow betting lines as a result. Bet at your own peril.
Please Bet Responsibly!
Remember to only wager what you can realistically afford to lose. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you think you need help with a gambling addiction. Do not chase your losses. Set limits and don’t make sports betting more stressful than it needs to be.
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