By Tony Penecale
Muaj rivalries uas yog legendary thoob plaws keeb kwm. The Hatfields and The McCoys, Lub Capulets thiab cov Montagues thiab lub New York Yankees thiab lub Boston Liab Sox yog tag nrho iab rivalries. It can be argued that the most brutal is the long-standing boxing rivalry between Puerto Rican fighters against their Mexican counterparts. The next chapter matches the experience and heavy hands of Puerto Rican icon Miguel Cotto against the youth and power of Mexican dynamo Saul “Canelo” Alvarez. When they meet on Saturday night, ob fighters yuav tau nqa cov kev txaus siab ntawm lawv lub teb chaws mus rau hauv lub nplhaib thiab nyob rau hauv lub mantra ntawm Spartan warriors, lawv yuav muaj los ntawm sib ntaus sib tua nrog ib tug ntaub thaiv npog los yog nyob rau nws. Who will be carrying his shield at the end of their encounter and who will be carried out on his?
HNUB NYOOG, NTAUB, Thiab stats
Siav: Muaj hnub nyoog: 35 xyoo
Cov ntaub ntawv: 40-4 (33 Knockouts)
Qhov siab: 5’7”
Yuag: 153 * * Qhov ceeb thawj rau tas bout (6-6-15)
Mus txog: 67"
Alvarez: Muaj hnub nyoog: 25 xyoo
Cov ntaub ntawv: 45-1-1 (32 Knockouts)
Qhov siab: 5’9”
Yuag: 154 * * Qhov ceeb thawj rau tas bout (5-9-15)
Mus txog: 70"
NPLHAIB tiav
Siav:
WBO Junior Welterweight zus ('04 -'06)
WBA Welterweight zus ('06 -'08)
WBO Welterweight zus ('09)
WBA Junior Middleweight zus ('10 -'12)
WBC Middleweight zus ('14 -Pres)
Alvarez:
WBC Junior Middleweight zus ('11 -'13)
WBA Junior Middleweight zus ('13)
STYLE
Siav:
Ib tug cev stalker uas thawv los ntawm lub orthodox stance, Cotto tau tsim zoo dua boxing kev txawj ntse tab sis tseem prefers tuaj ncaj nraim, thiab hnav tw nrog ib tug vicious lub cev nres. Cotto favors hooks and uppercuts to straight punches and turns every bout into a war of attrition. Doesn’t have lights-out punching power but is very punishing. Most of his stoppage victories have come late, tom qab nws tus nrog sib ntaus tau hnav cia. Will often leave himself open to counters when trying to unleash his offense.
Alvarez:
Ib tug txhoj puab heev, lub cev fighter nrog underrated boxing kev txawj ntse thiab quickness, Alvarez feem ntau ris tw cia nrog raws siab thiab hnyav-tes laug punches. Will use feints and counters to throw is opponents timing off and create openings for a strength-sapping body attack. Carries fight-changing power in both hands but sometimes doesn’t throw enough punches. While he is most known for his offensive skills, Alvarez muaj dlej, tab sis tsis zoo, defensive txawj slipping thiab thaiv cov hlab punches.
ZOG
Siav:
* Lub cev nres - Cotto yog heev tejzaum qhov zoo tshaj plaws lub cev Puncher nyob rau hauv kev ua si nawv niaj hnub no. He wings thunderous hooks on the inside that make contact with whatever is available: tav, lub xub pwg nyom, npog tas ib ce, lub hauv siab, thiab caj npab, nrog punishing tau.
* Zog - Cotto yog ib tug muaj zog thiab lub cev fighter. Even as he has grown from junior welterweight up to middleweight, nws tseem yog ib tug cev quab yuam, muaj peev xwm txoj kev hnav cia loj adversaries.
* Lub plawv - Cotto yog ib tug ntau ntawm cov hlob thaum nws kauj ruam mus rau hauv lub nplhaib. He has been in a number of wars where he’s been cut, khob qhov rooj cia, los yog nyob rau hauv lwm yam kev phiv lub sijhawm, thiab Cotto tau qhia ib tug tau zus ib lub plawv.
Alvarez:
* Xuas Nrig Ntaus fais fab - Alvarez yog xob quaj nyob rau hauv ob qho tag nrho ruaj ruaj. He is knockout power in either hand, tab sis nws feem ntau ntsoog loj heev ua tsov rog nyob rau hauv nws sab laug sib ntsib. A single left hook rendered the iron-jawed Carlos Baldomir unconscious and his knockout of James Kirkland was a potential knockout of the year candidate.
* Zog - Alvarez yog ib tug cev-maturing thiab thickly-ua fighter nrog uncanny zog. He is effective in backing fighters up, txawm tias thaum tsis tsaws dej ntws yaug punches. Against the smaller Josesito Lopez, nws tau txhawb nqa nws tawm nws ob txhais taw thiab xa nws mus rau lub hom ntaub khov heev nrog punches uas tsaws tiv thaiv nws tus nrog sib ntaus hauv siab.
* Punishing lub cev nres - Alvarez prefers hnav nws tw cia nyob rau hauv cov tsoos Mexican txoj kev zam ntawm punishing lub cev. While he is economical with his punches, nws muab nyiaj pab ntau tshaj leverage rau txhua punch, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov Crushing tshuav nuv rau lub siab.
WEAKNESSES
Siav:
* Los ntawm Wars - Cotto tau sib tw tiv thaiv lub ntiaj teb no-chav kawm txheem rau ntau tshaj ib xyoo caum. He suffered two brutal losses to Antonio Margarito and Manny Pacquiao and suffered punishment in his wins over Ricardo Torres, Zab Judah, thiab Shane Mosley. While he has had a resurgence working with Freddie Roach, rawsli cumulative los ntawm nws ua ntej kev tsov kev rog yuav ua tau ib tug detriment.
* Ib qho yooj yim rau Ntaus - Cotto tau ua kev txhim kho nrog nws tiv thaiv, tiam sis tseem muaj lub mindset hais tias nws zoo tshaj plaws kws muaj txuj ci ib tug zoo ua txhaum. His wide open offense and relentless body attack often leaves him open to be hit with counterpunches, feem ntau hooks thiab uppercuts.
* Puab tsaig - Nrog ib tug ua txhaum uas yoojyim rau nws nws rau counter punches, Cotto lub thawv puab tsaig yuav ua tau ib daim ntawv qhia rau kev puas tsuaj. Cotto was wobbled or dropped in several of his earlier fights and then battered, bloodied thiab TKO'd nyob rau hauv nws sib ntaus tiv thaiv Margarito (1st sib ntaus) thiab Pacquiao. Even the light-punching Floyd Mayweather staggered him late in their fight.
Alvarez:
* Ib Seem - Alvarez tsis hloov zoo nyob rau hauv nruab nrab-sib ntaus. He comes in with a single game-plan and has not shown the ability to adjust even when his tactics are not working. He struggled in his wins over Austin Trout and Erislandy Lara and was easily out-boxed against Mayweather.
* Nkees nkees - Alvarez ua hauj lwm nyuaj nyob rau hauv lub gym thiab yog yeej ib txwm nyob rau hauv zoo kawg lawm tab sis feem ntau pom nws nyuaj mus tag nrho qaij rau ib tug tag nrho puag ncig, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog raws li nws fights mus rau hauv lub nruab nrab los yog tom qab rounds. In his match with Austin Trout, Alvarez tsom loj qaug zog ntawm lub sij hawm thiab txawm pom nws tus kheej thaub.
* Ib qho yooj yim rau Ntaus -Alvarez tseem yog ib qho txhaum-thawj hom fighter uas nyiam mus thov siab rau nws tw. He will leave himself open to counter punches, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog sab tes xis thiab txee tshuav hooks.
Yav dhau los bout
Siav:
(6/6/15) - Cotto demolished Australian Daniel Geale nyob rau hauv ib tug middleweight title tiv thaiv, khob nws tawm nyob rau hauv plaub rounds. After winning the first three rounds, Cotto floored Geale ob zaug nyob rau hauv lub 4th puag ncig, yuam nws nyoo.
Alvarez:
(5/9/15) - Alvarez yeej lub peev xwm sib ntaus-of-2015 nrog ib tug neeg sib tw rau Knockout-of-lub xyoo, kev rhuav tseg James Kirkland nyob rau hauv peb rounds. The limited but dangerous Kirkland attacked early and the slugfest was initiated. Alvarez scored three knockdowns including a final right hand the rendered Kirkland unconscious.
3 ZOO TSHAJ PLAWS nrug
Siav:
* Sergio Martinez (6/7/14) - Cotto chim lub co-ntshai tab sis laus thiab raug mob-nws "Maravilla" Martinez. Cotto started quickly flooring the middleweight champion three times in the opening round and punished him throughout until the bout was halted in the 10th puag ncig.
* Zab Judah (6/9/07) - Cotto muaj nyiaj mus dhau ib co yooj yim lub sij hawm thaum ntxov tiv thaiv cov hais southpaw, tau txais Rocked thiab kev txom nyem ib qho kev txiav nyob rau hauv nws daim di ncauj. Cotto’s relentless pressure gradually broke down Judah, sapping nws lub dag lub zog. Cotto finished the show, xa me nyuam rov Judah nyob rau hauv lub 9 puag ncig ua ntej thaum kawg siv ceev xwmphem nws nyob rau hauv 11 rounds.
* Alfonso Gomez (4/12/08) - Cotto muab tso rau hauv ib tug stunning zaub, nws boxing kev txawj ntse nrog ib tug vicious lub cev nres kiag obliterate nrov "contender" alum Gomez los ntawm sis thib 5 ntawd puag ncig TKO. Cotto dominated the action and scored knockdowns in the 2nd, 3rd, thiab sis thib 5 ntawd rounds, ntaus Gomez mus rau kev mloog.
Alvarez:
* James Kirkland (5/9/15) - Nws yog tus 2015 version ntawm Hagler-Hearns. Kirkland attacked relentlessly at the bell and Alvarez responded in kind. Alvarez scored a knockdown in the 1st puag ncig thiab thwarted Kirkland lub nyuag lub sij hawm ntawm kev vam meej, flooring nws nrog ib tug uppercut nyob rau hauv lub 3rd puag ncig, ua ntej xov nws nrog ib tug picturesque sab tes xis xwb lub sij hawm tom qab.
* Kermit Cintron (11/26/11) - Ua nws 3rd title tiv thaiv, Alvarez ua rau nws zoo ib qho yooj yim tiv thaiv lub faded qub welterweight zus. Alvarez made Cintron appear older than his true age of 32, thiab txim rau nws yooj yim. Alvarez scored a knockdown in the 4th puag ncig ua ntej battering nws mercilessly thiab yuam ib tug stoppage nyob rau hauv lub 5th.
* Carlos Baldomir (9/18/10) - Alvarez yog lub 20 xyoo prodigy tig ntsia ib tug check qub ntiaj teb no zus nyob rau hauv Baldomir. Alvarez was successful boxing early and using his advantages in speed and skill to sweep the first five rounds. But it was his display in the 6th that was memorable. Alvarez rocked Baldomir before finally dropping with a left hook, rendering nws tsis nco qab ua ntej nws ntaus lev thiab kev soj ntsuam txog nws nws tsuas stoppage tsis nyob rau hauv ib tug 16-xyoo ua hauj lwm.
Lub lag luam los yeej
Siav:
* Siv footwork thiab cov ces kaum kom Alvarez tawm tshuav nyiaj li cas
* Tsis txhob sawv ntsug ntiv taw-mus-ntiv taw nrog lawm loj Alvarez
* Av thaum ntxov mus nce Alvarez tus hwm
Alvarez:
* Khaws lub siab rau Cotto thiab txiav tawm lub nplhaib
* Tawm jab Cotto thiab yuam nws mus pauv punches
* Ua siab ntev thaum ntxov thiab hnav Cotto cia
LUS NUG
Siav:
* Yuav Cotto sawv ntsug rau ib tug hluas thiab loj tus nrog sib ntaus?
* Yog nws ob lub yeej ntau tshaj ntawm ib rooj plaub ntawm txojkev faded los yog txwv txheem?
* Ntau npaum li cas Cotto yeej tau ncaim?
Alvarez:
* Yuav Alvarez hloov nws gameplan yog hais tias nws yog poob qab thaum ntxov?
* Yuav nws defensive liabilities yuav tsum tau raug tiv thaiv xws li ib tug txaus ntshai Puncher?
* Yog Alvarez tseem kev txhim kho?
PENECALE twv ua ntej
Cotto yuav qhib siv nws underrated boxing kev txawj ntse thiab quickness, tsiv laterally, thiab jabbing nyob rau hauv ib lub dag zog kom Alvarez los ntawm qhov chaw kawm nws ob txhais taw. Alvarez will advance trying to establish his own jab and work the body. Whenever Alvarez gets too close, Cotto yuav pivot tam sim ntawd thiab cov kauj ruam rau lub kaum sab xis nrog ib tug ob peb nyuaj jabs. The first two rounds will be strategical but tense. The eruption can happen at any time.
Qhov kev txiav txim yuav pib mus rau ntu nyob rau hauv lub 3rd puag ncig raws li Alvarez pheej tau txais los ze zog thiab rog Cotto pib mus rau sawv ntsug av. Like a couple of mountain rams butting heads and locking horns, lub hwj chim punches yuav pib ya. Cotto will throw flashier combinations, featuring overhand txoj cai rau cov taub hau, sab laug hooks rau lub cev, thiab ib qho nyuaj jabs rau lub ntsej muag thiab npog tas ib ce. Alvarez will dig his toes in and throw thumping single shots, uppercuts thiab hooks, ob leeg mus lub taub hau thiab lub cev, uas ua nyob rau hauv ib tug puas nyob rau hauv Cotto laug qhov muag thiab cov ntshav seeping los ntawm nws lub qhov ncauj.
Thoob plaws hauv lub nruab nrab rounds, Cotto tus superior boxing thiab skillset yuav muaj nws me ntsis ua ntej rau lub scorecards tab sis Alvarez coob thiab lub dag lub zog kom zoo dua yuav tsum, maj mam thiab muaj tseeb, hnav Cotto cia. Cotto’s three-and-four-punch combinations will gradually reduce to two-punch combinations and single hooks to the body. The slower pace will favor Alvarez and he will be able to control the tempo and dig in with hard punches to the body and right hands to the face.
Mus rau hauv lub 7th puag ncig, nrog lub bout zoo txawm thiab hnov nws yuav tsis ua mob rau cov loj Alvarez, Cotto yuav revert nws ua kom pom tseeb rov qab mus rau boxing nyob rau sab nraum. The change in tactic will momentarily bewilder Alvarez, uas twb ua xis trading nyob rau hauv lub trenches. The brief momentum shift will allow Cotto to regain a slight lead on the scorecards.
Vim nws pom hais tias nws yog tom qab thiab txojkev tus nrog sib ntaus uas yog maj mam fading, Alvarez yuav thov blistering siab nyob rau hauv lub 9th puag ncig, stalking Cotto, yuam nws txav los yog tshum kom ciaj sia, thiab ua rau nws siv precious zog nyob rau hauv ua li ntawd. Whenever they get close, Alvarez yuav siv nws lub xub pwg nyom rau nqaij Cotto thiab clip nws nrog luv luv hooks thiab uppercuts, ib pliag xwb staggering nws nyob rau hauv lub 10th puag ncig.
Nrog nws lub ntsej muag morphing rau hauv ib tug grotesque daim npog qhov ncauj ntawm cov ntshav thiab o, ib tug keeg puab siv Cotto yuav mus rau broke nyob rau hauv lub 11th, zuj desperately thiab winging ib co ntawm nws zoo tshaj plaws hooks rau lub cev thiab lub taub hau. Alvarez will be happy to trade hooks with him and the action will be intense. Late in the round, Alvarez yuav av ib yaug uppercut li Cotto yog dav qhib thiab Puerto Rican fighter yuav poob rau nws lub hauv caug, nws sab laug qhov muag ze li ntawm kaw thiab nws lub qhov ncauj to ntshav. His heart will pull him to his feet and Alvarez will come in for the kill, thaub qab Cotto mus rau lub ropes qhov twg cov kev pauv ntawm punches yog tsuas nres los ntawm lub tswb.
Tom qab kov cov hnab looj tes yuav pib qhov kawg puag ncig, Alvarez yuav tua Cotto los ntawm qhov pib. A pair of right hands to the side of the head will wobble Cotto, yuam nws mus qaug rau cov ropes thiab poob mus nws lub hauv caug. Referee Robert Byrd will administer the count with Cotto rising at the count of 8, vehemently sib xeem hais tias nws yog lawv xav tshuaj mus ntxiv. As soon as Byrd waves the fighters back together, Alvarez yuav dhia thoob plaws lub nplhaib, tsaws ib sab tes xis thiab sab laug uppercut. As Cotto falls back against the neutral corner, Byrd yuav kauj ruam nyob rau hauv nruab nrab ntawm lawv thiab tsis txhob sib ntaus, taw Alvarez ua tus khiav.
Tus khiav los ntawm TKO ntawm 59 vib nas this ntawm lub 12h puag ncig yuav Xa-u "Canelo" Alvarez!!!!