By Tony Penecale

There are rivalries that are legendary throughout history.  The Hatfields and The McCoys, The Capulets and The Montagues and The New York Yankees and The Boston Red Sox are all bitter rivalries.  It can be argued that the most brutal is the long-standing boxing rivalry between Puerto Rican fighters against their Mexican counterparts.  The next chapter matches the experience and heavy hands of Puerto Rican icon Miguel Cotto against the youth and power of Mexican dynamo Saul “Canelo” Alvarez.  When they meet on Saturday night, both fighters will be carrying the pride of their country into the ring and in the mantra of Spartan warriors, they will emerge from battle with a shield or on it.  Who will be carrying his shield at the end of their encounter and who will be carried out on his?

AGE, RECORD, AND STATS

Cotto:   Age:  35 years old

Record:  40-4 (33 Knockouts)

Height:  5’7”

Weight:  153   * * Weight for last bout (6-6-15)

Reach:  67”

Alvarez: Age:  25 years old

Record:  45-1-1 (32 Knockouts)

Height:  5’9”

Weight:  154   * * Weight for last bout (5-9-15)

Reach:  70”

RING ACCOMPLISHMENTS

Cotto:

WBO Junior Welterweight Champion (’04-‘06)

WBA Welterweight Champion (’06-‘08)

WBO Welterweight Champion (’09)

WBA Junior Middleweight Champion (’10-‘12)

WBC Middleweight Champion (’14-Pres)

Alvarez:

WBC Junior Middleweight Champion (’11-‘13)

WBA Junior Middleweight Champion (’13)

STYLE

Cotto:  

A physical stalker who boxes from the orthodox stance, Cotto has developed better boxing skills but still prefers to come straight ahead, and wear opponents down with a vicious body attack.  Cotto favors hooks and uppercuts to straight punches and turns every bout into a war of attrition.  Doesn’t have lights-out punching power but is very punishing.  Most of his stoppage victories have come late, after his opponent has been worn down.  Will often leave himself open to counters when trying to unleash his offense.  

Alvarez:

An aggressive, physical fighter with underrated boxing skills and quickness, Alvarez often wears opponents down with consistent pressure and heavy-handed punches.  Will use feints and counters to throw is opponents timing off and create openings for a strength-sapping body attack.  Carries fight-changing power in both hands but sometimes doesn’t throw enough punches.  While he is most known for his offensive skills, Alvarez has decent, but not great, defensive skills slipping and blocking punches.

STRENGTHS

Cotto:

* Body Attack – Cotto is quite possibly the best body puncher in the sport today.  He wings thunderous hooks on the inside that make contact with whatever is available: ribs, shoulders, torso, chest, and arms, with punishing results.  

* Strength – Cotto is a strong and physical fighter.  Even as he has grown from junior welterweight up to middleweight, he remains a physical force, capable of wearing down larger adversaries.

* Heart – Cotto carries a lot of pride when he steps into the ring.  He has been in a number of wars where he’s been cut, knocked down, or in other adverse situations, and Cotto has shown a champion’s heart.

Alvarez:  

* Punching Power – Alvarez carries thunder in both fists.  He is knockout power in either hand, but his most devastating weapon resides in his left hook.  A single left hook rendered the iron-jawed Carlos Baldomir unconscious and his knockout of James Kirkland was a potential knockout of the year candidate.

* Strength – Alvarez is a physically-maturing and thickly-built fighter with uncanny strength.  He is effective in backing fighters up, even when not landing flush punches.  Against the smaller Josesito Lopez, he lifted him off his feet and sent him to the canvas with punches that landed against his opponent’s chest.

* Punishing Body Attack – Alvarez prefers to wear his opponents down in the traditional Mexican fashion of punishing the body.  While he is economical with his punches, he delivers maximum leverage on each punch, especially the crushing left hook to the liver.

WEAKNESSES

Cotto:

* Effects of Wars – Cotto has been competing against world-class opposition for over a decade.  He suffered two brutal losses to Antonio Margarito and Manny Pacquiao and suffered punishment in his wins over Ricardo Torres, Zab Judah, and Shane Mosley.  While he has had a resurgence working with Freddie Roach, the cumulative effects of his prior wars can be a detriment.

* Easy to Hit – Cotto has made improvements with his defense but still has the mindset that his best defense is a good offense.  His wide open offense and relentless body attack often leaves him open to be hit with counterpunches, primarily hooks and uppercuts.

* Chin – Combined with an offense that leaves him prone to counter punches, Cotto’s shaky chin can be a recipe for disaster.  Cotto was wobbled or dropped in several of his earlier fights and then battered, bloodied and TKO’d in his fights against Margarito (1st fight) and Pacquiao.  Even the light-punching Floyd Mayweather staggered him late in their fight.

Alvarez:

* One Dimensional – Alvarez does not adapt well in mid-fight.  He comes in with a single game-plan and has not shown the ability to adjust even when his tactics are not working.  He struggled in his wins over Austin Trout and Erislandy Lara and was easily out-boxed against Mayweather.

* Fatigue – Alvarez works hard in the gym and is always in great shape but often finds it hard to go full tilt for an entire round, especially as his fights go into the middle or later rounds.  In his match with Austin Trout, Alvarez showed serious fatigue at times and even found himself backing up.

* Easy to Hit –Alvarez is still an offense-first type of fighter who likes to apply pressure to his opponents.  He will leave himself open to counter punches, especially right hand and counter left hooks.

PREVIOUS BOUT

Cotto:  

(6/6/15) – Cotto demolished Australian Daniel Geale in a middleweight title defense, knocking him out in four rounds.  After winning the first three rounds, Cotto floored Geale twice in the 4th round, forcing him to surrender.

Alvarez:

(5/9/15) – Alvarez won the potential Fight-of-2015 with a candidate for Knockout-of-the Year, destroying James Kirkland in three rounds.  The limited but dangerous Kirkland attacked early and the slugfest was initiated.  Alvarez scored three knockdowns including a final right hand the rendered Kirkland unconscious.

3 BEST PERFORMANCES

Cotto:

* Sergio Martinez (6/7/14) – Cotto upset the highly-regarded but aging and injury-prone “Maravilla” Martinez.  Cotto started quickly flooring the middleweight champion three times in the opening round and punished him throughout until the bout was halted in the 10th round.

* Zab Judah (6/9/07) – Cotto had to endure some difficult moments early against the speedy southpaw, getting rocked and suffering a cut under his lip.  Cotto’s relentless pressure gradually broke down Judah, sapping his strength.  Cotto finished the show, dropping Judah in the 9th round before finally stopping him in 11 rounds.

* Alfonso Gomez (4/12/08) – Cotto put on a stunning display, mixing boxing skills with a vicious body attack to completely obliterate popular “Contender” alum Gomez by 5th round TKO.  Cotto dominated the action and scored knockdowns in the 2nd, 3rd, and 5th rounds, beating Gomez into submission.

Alvarez:

* James Kirkland (5/9/15) – It was the 2015 version of Hagler-Hearns.  Kirkland attacked relentlessly at the bell and Alvarez responded in kind.  Alvarez scored a knockdown in the 1st round and thwarted Kirkland’s brief moments of success, flooring him with an uppercut in the 3rd round, before finishing him with a picturesque right hand only moments later.

* Kermit Cintron (11/26/11) – Making his 3rd title defense, Alvarez made it look easy against the faded former welterweight champion.  Alvarez made Cintron appear older than his true age of 32, and punished him with ease.  Alvarez scored a knockdown in the 4th round before battering him mercilessly and forcing a stoppage in the 5th.

* Carlos Baldomir (9/18/10) – Alvarez was a 20 year old prodigy facing a durable former world champion in Baldomir.  Alvarez was successful boxing early and using his advantages in speed and skill to sweep the first five rounds.  But it was his display in the 6th that was memorable.  Alvarez rocked Baldomir before finally dropping with a left hook, rendering him unconscious before he hit the mat and dealing him his only stoppage loss in a 16-year career.

KEYS TO VICTORY

Cotto:

* Use footwork and angles to keep Alvarez off balance

* Do not stand toe-to-toe with the naturally larger Alvarez

* Land early to gain Alvarez’s respect

Alvarez:

* Keep the pressure on Cotto and cut off the ring

* Out jab Cotto and force him to trade punches

* Be patient early and wear Cotto down

QUESTIONS

Cotto:

* Can Cotto stand up to a younger and larger opponent?

* Were his last two victories more of a case of facing faded or limited opposition?

* How much does Cotto really have left?

Alvarez:

* Can Alvarez change his gameplan if he is falling behind early?

* Will his defensive liabilities be exposed against such a dangerous puncher?

* Is Alvarez still improving?

PENECALE PREDICTION

Cotto will open utilizing his underrated boxing skills and quickness, moving laterally, and jabbing in an effort to keep Alvarez from setting his feet.  Alvarez will advance trying to establish his own jab and work the body.  Whenever Alvarez gets too close, Cotto will pivot away and step on angle with a few hard jabs.  The first two rounds will be strategical but tense.  The eruption can happen at any time.

The action will start to intensify in the 3rd round as Alvarez continually gets closer and forces Cotto to start to stand his ground.  Like a couple of mountain rams butting heads and locking horns, the power punches will start to fly.  Cotto will throw flashier combinations, featuring overhand rights to the head, left hooks to the body, and hard jabs to the face and torso.  Alvarez will dig his toes in and throw thumping single shots, uppercuts and hooks, both to the head and body, which result in an abrasion under Cotto’s left eye and blood seeping from his mouth.

Throughout the middle rounds, Cotto’s superior boxing and skillset will have him slightly ahead on the scorecards but Alvarez’s size and strength advantage will be, slowly and surely, wearing Cotto down.  Cotto’s three-and-four-punch combinations will gradually reduce to two-punch combinations and single hooks to the body.  The slower pace will favor Alvarez and he will be able to control the tempo and dig in with hard punches to the body and right hands to the face.

Going into the 7th round, with the bout virtually even and sensing he cannot hurt the larger Alvarez, Cotto will revert his focus back to boxing on the outside.  The change in tactic will momentarily bewilder Alvarez, who was becoming comfortable trading in the trenches.  The brief momentum shift will allow Cotto to regain a slight lead on the scorecards.

Realizing that he is behind and facing an opponent who is slowly fading, Alvarez will apply blistering pressure in the 9th round, stalking Cotto, forcing him to move or punch to survive, and causing him to expend precious energy in doing so.  Whenever they get close, Alvarez will use his shoulders to muscle Cotto and clip him with short hooks and uppercuts, momentarily staggering him in the 10th round.

With his face morphing into a grotesque mask of blood and swelling, a seemingly spent Cotto will go for broke in the 11th, attacking desperately and winging some of his best hooks to the body and head.  Alvarez will be happy to trade hooks with him and the action will be intense.  Late in the round, Alvarez will land a flush uppercut as Cotto is wide open and the Puerto Rican fighter will drop to his knees, his left eye nearly shut and his mouth leaking blood.  His heart will pull him to his feet and Alvarez will come in for the kill, backing Cotto to the ropes where the exchange of punches is only halted by the bell.

After touching gloves to start the final round, Alvarez will attack Cotto from the onset.  A pair of right hands to the side of the head will wobble Cotto, forcing him to stagger to the ropes and fall to his knees.  Referee Robert Byrd will administer the count with Cotto rising at the count of 8, vehemently contending that he is OK to continue.  As soon as Byrd waves the fighters back together, Alvarez will spring across the ring, landing a right hand and left uppercut.  As Cotto falls back against the neutral corner, Byrd will step in between them and stop the fight, signaling Alvarez as the winner.

The winner by TKO at 59 seconds of the 12h round will be Saul “Canelo” Alvarez!!!!